The VII AMMCS International Conference

Waterloo, Ontario, Canada | August 17-21, 2026

AMMCS 2026 Semi-Plenary Speaker

Comparative Counterfactual Analysis of COVID-19 Policies and Vaccination

Dr. Marwa Tuffaha, York University, Toronto

Understanding how public health decisions shape epidemic outcomes is essential for futureoutbreak preparedness. In this study, we develop and apply an age-structured model of infectionand immunity to investigate how diff erent combinations of non-pharmaceutical measures andvaccination pathways infl uence COVID-19 dynamics across several regions. Using jurisdiction-specifi c calibration to observed epidemiological data, we construct hypothetical scenarios thatmodify intervention timing, policy intensity, primary vaccine rollout, and booster administrationThe analysis reveals that epidemic severity is strongly shaped by the interplay between existingimmunity levels and behavioral response to public health measures. In particular, non-schoolinterventions have the biggest impact in reducing infections. Additionally, booster delivery has apronounced eff ect on reducing hospitalizations and other severe outcomes, even when uptake isnot universal. By enabling harmonized comparison across regions, this modelling approachprovides a practical tool for evaluating alternative response strategies and informing futurepandemic policy.
Marwa Tuffaha is a postdoctoral fellow at York University working on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and public health interventions. She completed her PhD in Applied Mathematics at Western University, following a Master’s degree from Jordan and a Bachelor’s degree from Syria. Her doctoral research focused on evolutionary rescue and mutation-rate evolution, and her current work uses age-structured models of infection and immunity to evaluate the effects of vaccination, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and behavioral responses on epidemic outcomes.